Preseason Rankings
Boise St.
Mountain West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#86
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.4#129
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#75
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 3.9% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.1% 8.2% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 39.7% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.2% 24.7% 9.0%
Average Seed 10.1 9.1 10.4
.500 or above 80.9% 94.1% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.7% 91.8% 81.1%
Conference Champion 15.4% 23.3% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four3.2% 5.1% 2.8%
First Round21.4% 37.1% 18.5%
Second Round8.8% 17.1% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 6.0% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 2.3% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 33 - 6
Quad 36 - 39 - 9
Quad 46 - 116 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 18   @ Houston L 66-77 16%    
  Nov 29, 2020 246   Sam Houston St. W 83-71 86%    
  Dec 03, 2020 180   New Mexico W 83-73 84%    
  Dec 05, 2020 180   New Mexico W 83-73 83%    
  Dec 22, 2020 154   Loyola Marymount W 73-64 78%    
  Dec 31, 2020 282   @ San Jose St. W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 02, 2021 282   @ San Jose St. W 86-76 81%    
  Jan 06, 2021 225   Air Force W 83-69 87%    
  Jan 08, 2021 225   Air Force W 83-69 88%    
  Jan 11, 2021 169   @ Wyoming W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 13, 2021 169   @ Wyoming W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 21, 2021 150   Fresno St. W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 23, 2021 150   Fresno St. W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 28, 2021 112   @ Colorado St. L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 30, 2021 112   @ Colorado St. L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 05, 2021 104   @ Nevada L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 07, 2021 104   @ Nevada L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 11, 2021 102   UNLV W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 13, 2021 102   UNLV W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 18, 2021 75   Utah St. W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 20, 2021 75   Utah St. W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 25, 2021 36   @ San Diego St. L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 27, 2021 36   @ San Diego St. L 66-74 26%    
Projected Record 14 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.4 3.9 3.5 1.7 0.4 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.3 5.6 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.4 5.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.4 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.6 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.3 7.9 9.8 11.2 11.9 11.4 10.4 8.5 5.6 3.9 1.7 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.5% 1.7    1.6 0.1
18-2 90.5% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
17-3 68.2% 3.9    2.5 1.2 0.1
16-4 40.0% 3.4    1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 18.1% 1.9    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
14-6 5.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 9.9 4.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 68.3% 31.7% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.7% 98.2% 53.6% 44.6% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.1%
18-2 3.9% 90.8% 39.1% 51.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 84.8%
17-3 5.6% 75.9% 34.0% 41.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.4 63.5%
16-4 8.5% 55.2% 27.4% 27.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 38.3%
15-5 10.4% 33.9% 19.5% 14.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.9 17.8%
14-6 11.4% 17.8% 13.4% 4.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 9.4 5.1%
13-7 11.9% 10.9% 9.9% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.6 1.1%
12-8 11.2% 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 0.1%
11-9 9.8% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.0%
10-10 7.9% 2.2% 2.2% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7
9-11 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
8-12 4.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.2
7-13 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 23.0% 13.3% 9.7% 10.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.9 5.5 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 77.0 11.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 45.9 24.7 28.2 1.2